News

Confusing conclusions and changing figures abound.
By Lisa Shara Hall

When the most recent study commissioned by Vinexpo was released recently, the industry was abuzz with questions.

The study, the fifth since 2002, was commissioned by Vinexpo and conducted by the International Wine and Spirits Record (IWSR). The detailed report includes data on global consumption, production and international trade for wines and spirits, with forecasts to 2010, and covers 28 wine-producing countries and 114 markets for wine and spirits consumption.

The U.S. is forecast to be the largest wine-consuming country in the world, according to the Vinexpo/IWSR study. Americans will consume nearly 29 million hectoliters (approximately 766 million U.S. gallons) of wine in 2010, which is equivalent to over 3.8 billion bottles.

From 2001 to 2005, the consumption of still and sparkling wine has seen steady growth, increasing an average of 4 percent a year. This increase is projected to continue through 2010 and will make the U.S. the largest wine consumer in the world, in front of both Italy and France. (Note that these figures look at absolute volumes, not consumption per person.)

A previous Vinexpo/IWSR study predicted that the U.S would become the leading wine-consuming country by 2008. However, due to a projected slowdown of the American economy--including a drop in the real estate market, the 2008 presidential elections and higher oil prices--the forecast has been pushed back to 2010.

The study results also claimed the following:

• The U.S is projected to greatly increase its consumption.

In 2005, consumption per capita was 11.7 liters (3.09 U.S. gallons) per year, per person (of legal drinking age). An increase to 12.3 liters (3.25 U.S. gallons) is projected by 2010.

• Sales of still wine in terms of both value and volume are increasing.

Sales of still wine in terms of value reached over $19 billion in 2005 (+22.49 percent versus 2001). Sales in terms of value are projected to increase a further 18.7 percent between 2005 and 2010, reaching almost $23 billion.

Over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010, retail wine sales will have increased by 45.41 percent while consumption in volume will have progressed by 40.91 percent over the same period.

• All market segments are increasing.

Wine retailing for $5 or less represented 46.97 percent (in volume) of all the still wine consumed in 2005--the consumption rate of increase for these wines is projected to be 8.2 percent from 2005 to 2010.

Wines retailing between $5-$10 are projected to see an increase of 18.35 percent in sales between 2005 to 2010, and wines retailing for $10 or more, an increase of 12.87 percent for the same time period.

• Americans consume more red wine than rosé and white wine.

Since 2004, Americans have been consuming more red wine than rosé and white wine.

In 2005, red wine consumption represented 41.69 percent of the total still wine consumption whereas white wine represented 40.9 percent and rosé wine, 17.41 percent.

From 2005 to 2010, the Vinexpo/IWSR study projects an even larger growth in the consumption of red wine, a further increase of 28.79 percent.

• Consumption of imported wine is rapidly growing.

In 2005, imported wines in the world represented 27.35 percent of all the wine consumed. From 2005 to 2010, consumption is predicted to grow by 26.85 percent.

• Currently, the U.S. is the third largest wine importer in the world (behind Germany and Great Britain).

The projection for 2010 is an increase of 28.65 percent in the consumption of imported wine--which would represent 29.32 percent of the total wine consumed in the U.S.--and was initially reported as making the U.S. the second largest wine importer in the world.